Conditional Reliability is used in GE Digital APM's Failure Probability Calculator. The calculator is available for all distribution models and uses conditional probability to compute the probability of failure at time, t.
The concept of Conditional Reliability involves the following questions:
What is the probability of failure given that the item has survived until today?
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Understanding the results of a failure probability analysis is a learned skill that will improve the more it is used. For example, the user may find the current probability of failure for a given element to be 90% or more after 3 years of operating time. If the user were to calculate the future probability of failure 10 days from the current date, the estimate of future failure probability might be around 1%. This is accurate. This often occurs when the future is small compared to the total life experienced by the elements under study.
R(T,t) = R (T+t)/R(T)
The Probability of surviving (T + t) days equals the Probability of surviving (T) days and then surviving additional (t) days.
GE Digital APM Reliability allows you to specify the operating time and calculate the probability of equipment failure. Or you can choose to specify the probability of equipment failure and then calculate the future age when the specified probability will be reached.
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