Accounting estimates and assumptions discussed in this section are those that we consider to be the most critical to an understanding of our financial statements because they inherently involve significant judgments and uncertainties. For all of these estimates, we caution that future events rarely develop exactly as forecast, and the best estimates routinely require adjustment. Also see note 1, Summary of Significant Accounting Policies, which discusses accounting policies that we have selected from acceptable alternatives.
LOSSES ON FINANCING RECEIVABLES are recognized when they are incurred, which requires us to make our best estimate of probable losses inherent in the portfolio. Such estimate requires consideration of historical loss experience, adjusted for current conditions, and judgments about the probable effects of relevant observable data, including present economic conditions such as delinquency rates, financial health of specific customers and market sectors, collateral values, and the present and expected future levels of interest rates. Our risk management process, which includes standards and policies for reviewing major risk exposures and concentrations, ensures that relevant data are identified and considered either for individual loans or leases, or on a portfolio basis, as appropriate.
Our lending and leasing experience and the extensive data we accumulate and analyze facilitate estimates that have proven reliable over time. Our actual loss experience was in line with expectations for 2006, 2005 and 2004. While prospective losses depend to a large degree on future economic conditions, we do not anticipate significant adverse credit development in 2007.
Further information is provided in the Financial Resources and Liquidity — Financing Receivables section, the Asset Impairment section that follows and in notes 1, 13 and 14.
REVENUE RECOGNITION ON LONG-TERM AGREEMENTS to provide product services
(product services agreements) requires estimates of profits over the multiple-year terms of such agreements,
considering factors such as the frequency and extent of future monitoring, maintenance and overhaul events; the amount of personnel, spare parts and other resources required to perform the services; and future billing rate and cost changes. We routinely review estimates under product services agreements and regularly revise them to adjust for changes in outlook. We also regularly assess customer credit risk inherent in the carrying amounts of receivables and contract costs and estimated earnings, including the risk that contractual penalties may not be sufficient to offset our accumulated investment in the event of customer termination. We gain insight into future utilization and cost trends, as well as credit risk, through our knowledge of the installed base of equipment and the close interaction with our customers that comes with supplying critical services and parts over extended periods. Revisions that affect a product services agreement’s total estimated profitability result in an immediate adjustment of earnings. We provide for probable losses.
Carrying amounts for product services agreements in progress at December 31, 2006 and 2005, were $5.6 billion and $4.4 billion, respectively, and are included in the line, “Contract costs and estimated earnings” in note 17. Adjustments to earnings resulting from revisions to estimates on product services agreements have been insignificant for each of the years in the three-year period ended December 31, 2006.
Further information is provided in note 1.
ASSET IMPAIRMENT assessment involves various estimates and assumptions as follows:
INVESTMENTS. We regularly review investment securities for impairment based on both quantitative and qualitative criteria that include the extent to which cost exceeds market value, the duration of that market decline, our intent and ability to hold to maturity or until forecasted recovery, and the financial health of and specific prospects for the issuer. We perform comprehensive market research and analysis and monitor market conditions to identify potential impairments.
Further information about actual and potential impairment losses is provided in the Financial Resources and Liquidity — Investment Securities section and in notes 1 and 10.
LONG-LIVED ASSETS. We review long-lived assets for impairment whenever events or changes in circumstances indicate that the related carrying amounts may not be recoverable. Determining whether an impairment has occurred typically requires various estimates and assumptions, including determining which undiscounted cash flows are directly related to the potentially impaired asset, the useful life over which cash flows will occur, their amount, and the asset’s residual value, if any. In turn, measurement of an impairment loss requires a determination of fair value, which is based on the best information available. We derive the required undiscounted cash flow estimates from our historical experience and our internal business plans. To determine fair value, we use our internal cash flow estimates discounted at an appropriate interest rate, quoted market prices when available and independent appraisals, as appropriate.
Commercial aircraft are a significant concentration of assets in Infrastructure, and are particularly subject to market fluctuations. Therefore, we test recoverability of each aircraft in our operating lease portfolio at least annually. Additionally, we perform quarterly evaluations in circumstances such as when aircraft are re-leased, current lease terms have changed or a specific lessee’s credit standing changes. We consider market conditions, such as the global shortage of commercial aircraft in 2006. Estimates of future rentals and residual values are based on historical experience and information received routinely from independent appraisers. Estimated cash flows from future leases are reduced for expected downtime between leases and for estimated technical costs required to prepare aircraft to be redeployed. Fair value used to measure impairment is based on current market values from independent appraisers.
We recognized impairment losses on our operating lease portfolio of commercial aircraft of $0.1 billion and $0.3 billion in 2006 and 2005, respectively. In addition to these impairment charges relating to operating leases, provisions for losses on financing receivables related to commercial aircraft were insignificant in 2006 and $0.2 billion in 2005, primarily related to Northwest Airlines Corporation (Northwest Airlines).
Certain of our commercial aviation customers are operating under bankruptcy protection while they implement steps to return to profitable operations with a lower cost structure. At December 31, 2006, our largest exposures to carriers operating in bankruptcy were to Delta Air Lines, Inc., $1.9 billion, and Northwest Airlines, $1.1 billion. Our financial exposures to these carriers are substantially secured by various Boeing, Airbus and Bombardier aircraft and operating equipment.
Further information on impairment losses and our exposure to the commercial aviation industry is provided in the Operations — Overview section and in notes 10, 15 and 29.
REAL ESTATE. We regularly review our real estate investment portfolio for impairment or when events or circumstances indicate that the related carrying amounts may not be recoverable. Our portfolio is diversified, both geographically and by asset type. However, the global real estate market is subject to periodic cycles that can cause significant fluctuations in market values. While the current estimated value of our Commercial Finance Real Estate investments exceeds our carrying value by about $3.0 billion, the same as last year, downward cycles could adversely affect our ability to realize these gains in an orderly fashion in the future and may necessitate recording impairments.
GOODWILL AND OTHER IDENTIFIED INTANGIBLE ASSETS. We test
goodwill for impairment annually and whenever events or
circumstances make it more likely than not that an impairment may have occurred, such as a significant adverse change in the business climate or a decision to sell or dispose all or a portion of a reporting unit. Determining whether an impairment has occurred requires valuation of the respective reporting unit, which we estimate using a discounted cash flow method. When available and as appropriate, we use comparative market multiples to corroborate discounted cash flow results. In applying this methodology, we rely on a number of factors, including actual operating results, future business plans, economic projections and market data.
If this analysis indicates goodwill is impaired, measuring the impairment requires a fair value estimate of each identified tangible and intangible asset. In this case, we supplement the cash flow approach discussed above with independent appraisals, as appropriate.
We test other identified intangible assets with defined useful lives and subject to amortization by comparing the carrying amount to the sum of undiscounted cash flows expected to be generated by the asset. We test intangible assets with indefinite lives annually for impairment using a fair value method such as discounted cash flows.
Further information is provided in the Financial Resources and Liquidity — Intangible Assets section and in notes 1 and 16.
PENSION ASSUMPTIONS are significant inputs to the actuarial models that measure pension benefit obligations and related effects on operations. Two assumptions — discount rate and expected return on assets — are important elements of plan expense and asset/liability measurement. We evaluate these critical assumptions at least annually on a plan and country-specific basis. We evaluate other assumptions
involving demographic factors, such as retirement age, mortality and turnover periodically, and update them to reflect our experience and expectations for the future. Actual results in any given year will often differ from actuarial assumptions because of economic
and other factors.
Accumulated and projected benefit obligations are expressed as the present value of future cash payments. We discount those cash payments using the weighted average of market-observed yields for high quality fixed income securities with maturities that correspond to the payment of benefits. Lower discount rates increase present values and subsequent-year pension expense; higher discount rates decrease present values and subsequent-year pension expense.
To reflect market interest rate conditions, we increased our discount rate for principal pension plans at December 31, 2006, from 5.50% to 5.75% and reduced the discount rate at December 31, 2005, from 5.75% to 5.50%.
To determine the expected long-term rate of return on pension plan assets, we consider the current and expected asset allocations, as well as historical and expected returns on various categories of plan assets. Assets in our principal pension plans earned 16.7% in 2006, and had average annual earnings of 9.2%, 10.0% and 12.6% per year in the five, 10 and 25-year periods ended December 31, 2006, respectively. We believe that these results, in connection with our current and expected asset allocations, support our assumed long-term return of 8.5% on those assets.
Sensitivity to changes in key assumptions for our principal pension plans follows.
- Discount rate — A 25 basis point increase in discount rate would decrease pension cost in the following year by $0.2 billion.
- Expected return on assets — A 50 basis point increase in the expected return on assets would decrease pension cost in the following year by $0.2 billion.
Further information on our pension plans is provided in the Operations — Overview section and in note 7.
INCOME TAXES. Our annual tax rate is based on our income, statutory tax rates and tax planning opportunities available to us in the various jurisdictions in which we operate. Tax laws are complex and subject to different interpretations by the taxpayer and respective governmental taxing authorities. Significant judgment is required in determining our tax expense and in evaluating our tax positions. We review our tax positions quarterly and adjust the balances as new information becomes available. Deferred income tax assets represent amounts available to reduce income taxes payable on taxable income in future years. Such assets arise because of temporary differences between the financial reporting and tax bases of assets and liabilities, as well as from net operating loss and tax credit carryforwards. We evaluate the recoverability of these future tax deductions by assessing the adequacy of future expected taxable income from all sources, including reversal of taxable temporary differences, forecasted operating earnings and available tax planning strategies. These sources of income inherently rely heavily on estimates. We use our historical experience and our short and long-range business forecasts to provide insight. Further, our global and diversified business portfolio gives us the opportunity to employ various prudent and feasible tax planning strategies to facilitate the recoverability of future deductions. Amounts recorded for deferred tax assets related to non-U.S. net operating losses, net of valuation allowance were $2.0 billion and $1.4 billion at December 31, 2006 and 2005, respectively. Such year-end 2006 amounts are expected to be fully recoverable within the applicable statutory expiration periods. To the extent we believe it is more likely than not that a deferred tax asset will not be recovered, a valuation allowance is established.
Further information on income taxes is provided in the Operations — Overview section and in notes 8 and 21.
DERIVATIVES AND HEDGING. We use derivatives to manage a variety of risks, including risks related to interest rates, foreign exchange and commodity prices. Accounting for derivatives as hedges requires that, at inception and over the term of the arrangement, the hedged item and related derivative meet the requirements for hedge accounting. The rules and interpretations related to derivatives accounting are complex. Failure to apply this complex guidance correctly will result in all changes in the fair value of the derivative being reported in earnings, without regard to the offsetting changes in the fair value of the hedged item. The accompanying financial statements reflect the consequences of loss of hedge accounting for certain positions.
In evaluating whether a particular relationship qualifies for hedge accounting, we first determine whether the relationship meets the strict criteria to qualify for exemption from ongoing effectiveness testing. For a relationship that does not meet these criteria, we test effectiveness at inception and quarterly thereafter by determining whether changes in the fair value of the derivative offset, within a specified range, changes in the fair value of the hedged item. This test is conducted on a cumulative basis each reporting period. If fair value changes fail this test,
we discontinue applying hedge accounting to that relationship prospectively. Fair values of both the derivative instrument and the hedged item are calculated using internal valuation models incorporating market-based assumptions, subject to third-party confirmation.
At December 31, 2006, derivative assets and liabilities were $2.2 billion and $2.9 billion, respectively. Further information about our use of derivatives is provided in notes 18, 23 and 27.
OTHER LOSS CONTINGENCIES are recorded as liabilities when it is probable that a liability has been incurred and the amount of the loss is reasonably estimable. Disclosure is required when there is a reasonable possibility that the ultimate loss will materially exceed the recorded provision. Contingent liabilities are often resolved over long time periods. Estimating probable losses requires analysis of multiple forecasts that often depend on judgments about potential actions by third parties such as regulators.
Further information is provided in notes 20 and 29.
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