Critical Accounting Estimates
Accounting estimates and assumptions discussed in this section are those that we consider to be the most critical to an understanding of our financial statements because they inherently involve significant judgments and uncertainties. For all of these estimates, we caution that future events rarely develop exactly as forecast, and the best estimates routinely require adjustment. Also see note 1, Summary of Significant Accounting Policies, which discusses accounting policies that we have selected from acceptable alternatives.
LOSSES ON FINANCING RECEIVABLES are recognized when they are incurred, which requires us to make our best estimate of probable losses inherent in the portfolio. Such estimate requires consideration of historical loss experience, adjusted for current conditions, and judgments about the probable effects of relevant observable data, including present economic conditions such as delinquency rates, financial health of specific customers and market sectors, collateral values, and the present and expected future levels of interest rates. Our risk management process, which includes standards and policies for reviewing major risk exposures and concentrations, ensures that relevant data are identified and considered either for individual loans or leases, or on a portfolio basis, as appropriate.
Our lending and leasing experience and the extensive data we accumulate and analyze facilitate estimates that have been reliable over time. Our actual loss experience was in line with expectations for 2004 (adjusting for the effects of Consumer Finance’s standardization of its write-off policy), 2003 and 2002. While losses depend to a large degree on future economic conditions, we do not anticipate significant adverse credit development in 2005. Further information is provided in the financing receivables section on page 41, and in notes 1, 12, 13.
REVENUE RECOGNITION ON LONG-TERM AGREEMENTS to provide product services (product services agreements) requires estimates of profits over the multiple-year terms of such agreements, considering factors such as the frequency and extent of future monitoring, maintenance and overhaul events; the amount of personnel, spare parts and other resources required to perform the services; and future billing rate and cost changes. We routinely review estimates under product services agreements and regularly revise them to adjust for changes in outlook. Revisions that affect a product services agreement’s total estimated profitability will also result in an immediate adjustment of earnings. We provide for probable losses. We also regularly assess customer credit risk inherent in the carrying amounts of contract costs and estimated earnings. We gain insight into future utilization and cost trends, as well as credit risk, through our knowledge of the installed base of equipment and the close interaction with our customers that comes with supplying critical services and parts over extended periods. Carrying amounts for product services agreements in progress at December 31, 2004 and 2003, were $3.7 billion and $3.2 billion, respectively, and are included in the line, “Contract costs and estimated earnings” in note 17. Adjustments to earnings resulting from revisions to estimates on product services agreements have been insignificant for each of the years in the three-year period ended December 31, 2004.
Further information is provided in note 1.
ASSET IMPAIRMENT assessment involves various estimates and assumptions as follows:
INVESTMENTS. We regularly review investment securities for impairment based on criteria that include the extent to which cost exceeds market value, the duration of that market decline, our intent and ability to hold to recovery and the financial health and specific prospects for the issuer. We perform comprehensive market research and analysis and monitor market conditions to identify potential impairments. Further information about actual and potential impairment losses is provided on page 40 and in notes 1 and 9.
LONG-LIVED ASSETS. We review long-lived assets for impairment whenever events or changes in circumstances indicate that the related carrying amounts may not be recoverable. Determining whether an impairment has occurred typically requires various estimates and assumptions, including determining which cash flows are directly related to the potentially impaired asset, the useful life over which cash flows will occur, their amount, and the asset’s residual value, if any. In turn, measurement of an impairment loss requires a determination of fair value, which is based on the best information available. We use internal discounted cash flow estimates, quoted market prices when available and independent appraisals as appropriate to determine fair value. We derive the required cash flow estimates from our historical experience and our internal business plans and apply an appropriate discount rate.
Commercial aircraft are a significant concentration of assets in our Commercial Finance business, and are particularly subject to market fluctuations. Therefore, we test recoverability of each aircraft in our operating lease portfolio at least annually. Additionally, we perform quarterly evaluations in circumstances such as when aircraft are re-leased, current lease terms have changed or a specific lessee’s credit standing changes. Future rentals and residual values are based on historical experience and information received routinely from independent appraisers. Estimated cash flows from future leases are reduced for expected downtime between leases and for estimated technical costs required to prepare aircraft to be redeployed. Fair value used to measure impairment is based on current market values from independent appraisers. Further information on impairment losses and our overall exposure to the commercial aviation industry is provided on pages 48-49 and in notes 9 and 15.
GOODWILL AND OTHER IDENTIFIED INTANGIBLE ASSETS. We test goodwill for impairment annually and whenever events or circumstances make it more likely than not that an impairment may have occurred, such as a significant adverse change in the business climate or a decision to sell or dispose of a reporting unit. Determining whether an impairment has occurred requires valuation of the respective reporting unit, which we estimate using a discounted cash flow method. When available and as appropriate, we use comparative market multiples to corroborate discounted cash flow results. In applying this methodology, we rely on a number of factors, including actual operating results, future business plans, economic projections and market data.
If this analysis indicates goodwill is impaired, measuring the impairment requires a fair value estimate of each identified tangible and intangible asset. In this case we supplement the cash flow approach discussed above with independent appraisals, as appropriate.
We test other identified intangible assets with defined useful lives and subject to amortization by comparing the carrying amount to the sum of undiscounted cash flows expected to be generated by the asset. We test intangible assets with indefinite lives annually for impairment using a fair value method such as discounted cash flows.
Further information is provided on page 42 and in notes 1 and 16.
INSURANCE LIABILITIES AND RESERVES differ for short- and long-duration insurance contracts. Short-duration contracts such as property and casualty policies are accounted for based on actuarial estimates of losses inherent in that period’s claims, including losses for which claims have not yet been reported. Short-duration contract loss estimates rely on actuarial observations of ultimate loss experience for similar historical events. Measurement of long-duration insurance liabilities (such as guaranteed renewable term, whole life and long-term care insurance policies) also is based on approved actuarial methods that include assumptions about expenses, mortality, morbidity, lapse rates and future yield on related investments. Historical insurance industry experience indicates that a greater degree of inherent variability exists in assessing the ultimate amount of losses under short-duration property and casualty contracts than exists for long-duration mortality exposures. This inherent variability is particularly significant for liability-related exposures, including latent claims issues (such as asbestos and environmental related coverage disputes), because of the extended period of time — often many years — that transpires between when a given claim event occurs and the ultimate full settlement of such claim. This situation is then further exacerbated for reinsurance entities (as opposed to primary insurers) because of coverage often being provided on an “excess-of-loss” basis and the resulting lags in receiving current claims data.
We continually evaluate the potential for changes in loss estimates with the support of qualified reserving actuaries and use the results of these evaluations both to adjust recorded reserves and to proactively modify underwriting criteria and product offerings. For actuarial analysis purposes, reported and paid claims activity is segregated into several hundred reserving segments, each having differing historical settlement trends. A variety of actuarial methods are then applied to the underlying data for each of these reserving segments in arriving at an estimated range of “reasonably possible” loss scenarios. Factors such as line of business, length of historical settlement pattern, recent changes in underwriting standards and unusual trends in reported claims activity will generally affect which actuarial methods are given more weight for purposes of determining the “best estimate” of ultimate losses in a particular reserving segment. As discussed on pages 35 and 36 and in note 19, in recent years, reported claims activity at GE Insurance Solutions related to prior-year loss events, particularly for liability-related exposures underwritten in 1997 through 2001, have continued to develop adversely to previous expectations. This trend was considered in the actuarial reserve study completed in the fourth quarter of 2002, resulting in a significant increase in recorded reserves. In 2003, we continued to monitor our reported claims activity compared with our revised expected loss levels. While for the majority of our lines of business, reported claims activity in 2003 was reasonably close to expected amounts, for certain lines the reported claims volumes exceeded our revised loss expectations. In response to these new data, we further increased our loss reserves in 2003. In 2004, as part of our comprehensive annual assessment of recorded claim-related liabilities, we observed that reported claims activity in certain product lines, substantially related to the 1997 through 2001 underwriting years, continued to exceed previous established expectations and we again increased our loss reserves.
PENSION ASSUMPTIONS are significant inputs to actuarial models that measure pension benefit obligations and related effects on operations. Two critical assumptions — discount rate and expected return on assets — are important elements of plan expense and asset/liability measurement. We evaluate these critical assumptions at least annually on a plan and country-specific basis. Other assumptions involving demographic factors such as retirement age, mortality and turnover are evaluated periodically and are updated to reflect our experience and expectations for the future. Actual results in any given year will often differ from actuarial assumptions because of economic and other factors.
The discount rate enables us to state expected future cash flows at a present value on the measurement date. This rate is the yield on high-quality fixed income investments at the measurement date. A lower discount rate increases the present value of benefit obligations and increases pension expense.
To determine the expected long-term rate of return on pension plan assets, we consider the current and expected asset allocations, as well as historical and expected returns on various categories of plan assets. As of December 31, 2004, one-year returns on assets in our principal pension plans were 11.7%; five-year returns were 3.2%; 10-year returns were 11.4% and 25-year returns were 12.2%. We believe these results, in connection with our current and expected asset allocations, support our assumed long-term return of 8.5% on those assets.
To reflect market interest rate conditions, we reduced our discount rate for principal pension plans at December 31, 2004, from 6.0% to 5.75% and at December 31, 2003, from 6.75% to 6.0%. We assumed that long-term returns on the assets of our principal pension plans were 8.5% in 2004, the same as our assumptions for 2003 and 2002.
Sensitivity to changes in key assumptions for our principal pension plans follows:
- Discount rate — A 25 basis point reduction in discount rate would increase pension expense in 2005 by $0.1 billion.
- Expected return on assets — A 50 basis point increase in the expected return on assets would decrease pension expense in 2005 by $0.3 billion.
Further information on our postretirement benefit plans is provided on page 28 and in notes 5 and 6.
OTHER LOSS CONTINGENCIES are recorded as liabilities when it is probable that a liability has been incurred and the amount of the loss is reasonably estimable. Disclosure is required when there is a reasonable possibility that the ultimate loss will exceed the recorded provision. Contingent liabilities are often resolved over long time periods. Estimating probable losses requires analysis of multiple forecasts that often depend on judgments about potential actions by third parties such as regulators. Further information is provided in notes 20 and 30.
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